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Our reading of the political and socio-economic situation going forward is that there are three likely scenarios, namely: (a) the short and smooth transition, (b) the long and bumpy transition, and (c) a reversal of the transition. Each of the scenarios is based on some assumptions that are explored on Table 1.3 below.
Table 1.3 Scenarios analysis
We are planning for the long and bumpy transition scenario as the unity government remains fragile as each side tries to assert its authority. In this vein President Mugabe is unlikely to let the power sharing agreement force him to give up too much power, while MDC is looking to non-political means to reverse the country’s economic decline, but to do so in a way that will undermine Mugabe and ZANU PF and ensures that credit for economic recovery goes to MDC. However, should one of the first and third scenarios unfold, it will be a matter of either speeding up or delaying the adoption of recovery and development strategies for the short smooth transition and the reversal of transition scenarios, respectively. The long-term strategic planning beyond 2012 will deal with that as the ICSP is for the next two years which is the minimum period for all the three scenarios.
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