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2.5Scenarios Analysis



Our reading of the political and socio-economic situation going forward is that there are three likely scenarios, namely: (a) the short and smooth transition, (b) the long and bumpy transition, and (c) a reversal of the transition. Each of the scenarios is based on some assumptions that are explored on Table 1.3 below.


Table 1.3 Scenarios analysis


Scenario

  1. Short (2 yrs) smooth transition

  1. Long (5 yrs) bumpy transition

  1. Reversal of transition

Assumptions

  1. GNU arrangement holds as per the GPA on which it is founded.

  2. National healing, constitutional reform & institutional reform processes implemented as per GPA

  3. Constitutional referendum & general elections held by early 2011

  4. Elections conducted in a free & fair manner & there is no violence. Losers accept defeat gracefully & cooperate with the new government

  5. New government is set up as per new constitution.

  1. Delays in the implementation of some aspects of the GPA & partial national healing, constitutional & institutional reform processes.

  2. Political environment is polarised & there is no unity of purpose in the GNU.

  3. Limited space & opportunity for civil society & citizens to influence key national processes.

  4. Constitutional referendum & general elections are held after 5 years. Elections are held in a free & fair manner with limited disagreements.

  5. A new government is set up as per new constitution.

  6. Unforeseen events due to providence.

  1. Mistrust & suspicion among the main political parties in GNU leading to collapse of GPA.

  2. Failure to fulfil key aspects of the GPA.

  3. No meaningful institutional reforms & draconian laws such as AIPPA & POSA retained.

  4. General elections held after 5 years, characterised by violent campaigns.

  1. Unforeseen events due to providence throwing GPA & GNU into disarray.

Consequences

  1. A steady & sustainable socio-economic recovery process.

  2. Humanitarian situation improves & there is adequate food supply & access to health, education & other basic social services improve.

  3. Adequate space for civil society & ordinary citizens’ participation in national development processes.

  4. Sanctions (i.e. the Zimbabwe Democratic & Economic Recovery Act of the USA & EU targeted restrictions) are unconditionally lifted.

  1. The economic situation remains fragile, with limited/delayed recovery of the key productive sectors & the social sectors.

  2. There is a partial lifting of sanctions by the EU & USA.

  3. Delayed political & socio-economic turnaround.

  1. Return to pre 2008 general & presidential elections violence, humanitarian crisis & human rights abuses.

  2. State repression increases, resulting in banning of political parties & NGO operations.

  3. Elections may be held but not recognised by the international community.

  4. Sanctions are tightened leading to a deepening humanitarian crisis.

Likelihood

Low

High

Medium


We are planning for the long and bumpy transition scenario as the unity government remains fragile as each side tries to assert its authority. In this vein President Mugabe is unlikely to let the power sharing agreement force him to give up too much power, while MDC is looking to non-political means to reverse the country’s economic decline, but to do so in a way that will undermine Mugabe and ZANU PF and ensures that credit for economic recovery goes to MDC. However, should one of the first and third scenarios unfold, it will be a matter of either speeding up or delaying the adoption of recovery and development strategies for the short smooth transition and the reversal of transition scenarios, respectively. The long-term strategic planning beyond 2012 will deal with that as the ICSP is for the next two years which is the minimum period for all the three scenarios.



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